Reports

Telecom Capex Analysis; ALU BK, CSCO to the Rescue? AMZN in Focus

August 3, 2012

Among the more poignant moments of this earnings season occurred last Friday morning on the Tellabs call.  Chairman and founder Mike Birck appeared on the call for the first time in what might be a decade, as a result of the recent untimely passing of CEO Rob Pullen.  In his commentary he made reference to a [...]

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Earnings Review and Preview

July 23, 2012

  Given our experience last week it almost seems pointless to preview a busy week of earnings upcoming in the communications and technology sectors. We got most of what we were looking for from a fundamental standpoint and got about the opposite from a share price perspective with the exception of GOOG and ADVA. There [...]

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Telco Q2 Outperformance Follow Up

July 9, 2012

Amid a number of media stories and sell side commentary noting the telcos as the strongest performers in the S&P 500 in the quarter, with AT&T and Verizon representing the top two positive contributors to the index, we have taken the steps to follow up the initial analysis presented in last week’s Q2 review and [...]

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Q2 2012 Review and Outlook

July 2, 2012

The second quarter is perhaps best summarized by the month of June, with the Dow down 275 points on the first day of the month and up 277 on the last day. The market did indeed get down early, as noted in our early June blog post, and battle its way back, though the NAS [...]

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Verizon Wireless Pricing Changes- Maps in the News NOK

June 20, 2012

A couple of comments around some high level developments across the mobile communications space over the last week or so including (1) a deeper look into the pricing and package changes announced by Verizon (2) some of the developments coming out of the Apple developers forum most notably around maps including implications for GOOG and [...]

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Let’s Look at Some Charts- CIEN JNPR CSCO FNSR Events

June 11, 2012

We’ve been doing a little chart work, though not of the technical variety (though getting the two y axes was non trivial) instead sticking with the fundamentals of earnings and valuation as we often do. This is especially relevant heading into a very busy beginning of the week in the networking and communications sector. Specifically [...]

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When Randall Stephenson Talks…We Listen

May 29, 2012

A broker sponsored call with AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson late last week prior to the long weekend has pushed us over the line on a number of investment theses that we have been building over the last several weeks. The brief talk and Q&A touched very candidly on substantially all major issues affecting the communications [...]

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Terrapin Q1 2012 Review and Outlook

April 8, 2012

At a high level, Terrapin first quarter performance in the table below would seem to imply one message “Stick to Your Knitting”. Well either that or “Put it all on the HPQ/DELL pair and go to Cabo*”. Terrapin’s overall recommendation performance of up nearly 7% for the first quarter was driven by strong performance in [...]

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OFC 2012 Wrap- Manic Depression

March 12, 2012

The OFC Conference in Los Angeles this week was perhaps a microcosm of the last year in the optical networking systems and components spaces, offering both manic highs and depressing lows. Let us recall that on the eve of last year’s show we were several months into a party that had begun late the previous [...]

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With Facebook as a Springboard, Market Jumps Shark

February 6, 2012

Well last week’s bubble focused anecdotes appear to have been well timed. With Wednesday’s Facebook IPO filing as an apparent catalyst, we have moved from the sublime to the ridiculous in terms of both (1) valuations and price action in the social networking/Internet IPO universe and (2) the propensity to look past any adverse near [...]

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